Sunday, February 13, 2011

Stock Market Weekly Update, Sep 07, 2010

The Week Ahead: Unemployment inched up a notch on the U-3 measurement to 9.6%, but U-6 unemployment pushed to 16.7%. The private sector did add jobs for the eighth consecutive month. Two retail reports on Wednesday, the ICSC-Goldman Store Sales and the Redbook will give clues to consumer retail purchases. The Fed Beige Book and Consumer Credit will also be released. Thursday brings the International Trade figures as well as the Jobless Claims. Friday ends a short week with the Wholesale Trade numbers.

Stocks to Watch: After hitting new 52 week lows last Tuesday, the Select Sector Financial ETF (XLF) was one of the best performers last week as bank, insurance, and real estate stocks led the way. Campbell Soup (CPB) fell 3% on two times normal volume even after beating year ago numbers and estimates possibly indicating a trend change. Agricultural stocks charged higher as corn prices are now higher than a year ago: Caterpillar (CAT) rose 2.2%, Deere & Co. climbed 1.3%, and an exchange traded note that tracks corn prices and other grains (JJG) was up 3.3% reaching a 52 week high just 3 months after hitting a 52 week low.

Special Note: The stock markets surge from oversold levels early last week was either a flash in the pan due to seasonal factors surrounding the Labor Day holiday or the start of another advance in what appears to be a sideways trading range since May. One indication in support of the latter is the push through the 50 day moving average which in recent months has acted as a magnet to the 200 day moving average. Another is that some foreign indexes like the London FTSE index and the India Fund (IFN) have pushed through their August highs. An argument for the former is that September is historically the weakest month of the year.

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