Sunday, February 13, 2011

Weekly Market Newsletter, September 20, 2010

The Week Ahead: Gold and Silver price breakouts are helping to fuel speculation of higher prices in all markets even as the CPI was flat at its core rate, and household net worth fell 3% in the second quarter. Significant reports to watch will be: the Housing Market Index on Monday, the Housing Starts figures on Tuesday followed later by the Federal Reserve's announcement of interest rate policy, the Existing Home Sales and Leading Indicators on Thursday, and Durable Goods Orders preceding the New Home Sales numbers on Friday.

Stocks to Watch: Oracle Corp. (ORCL) beat the street estimates in its most recent quarterly report sending the stock up 8% on 5 times normal volume and reaching levels not seen since 2001. Micron Technology (MU) and Sandisk Corp. (SNDK) both sank as falling chip prices worldwide and weaker demand for consumer electronics are expected to squeeze profits. NetSuite ( N) reached a 52 week high as the business software firm will add 150 new workers for its 'cloud computing' services. Finally, Arena Pharmaceutical (ARNA) continued to collapse after the FDA rejected its obesity medicine.

Special Note: The Nasdaq 100 technology index (NDX) has done something beyond what it last did in January 1991 and that is 12 consecutive days without its prices touching the 5 day moving average. There are a number of extreme overbought readings the market is flashing now including a new 60 year low in the cash holdings of mutual funds now at 3.4% which is below the levels of the market peaks of 2000 and 2007. Another is the American Association of Individual Investors (AAII) whose sentiment poll shows more bulls now than at the recent April peak and less bears than the all time peak in the DOW and S&P 500 in 2007..

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